Réponse de VGE

« Bonnes fêtes de fin d’année ! | Bonne année 2009 ! »

Par Valéry Giscard d'Estaing le jeudi 8 janvier 2009, 12:08 - Réponses aux bloggeurs - Lien permanent

@ JS : Confirmation par le traité de Lisbonne du carcan imposé par le traité de Maastricht

Je comprends votre préoccupation mais le remède que vous préconisez n'est pas adapté. En réalité, le Traité de Maastricht n'impose aucun carcan à la Banque centrale. Il s'inspire au contraire d'un concept moderne pour la fonction d'une Banque centrale : la tâche principale de la banque étant de maintenir la stabilité des prix afin de garantir une utilisation efficace des ressources, le traité exclut qu'elle puisse financer des investissements de long terme aussi utiles qu'ils puissent paraître. Cela reviendrait à faire de la création monétaire ce qui va à l'encontre de la recherche d'un équilibre monétaire.
Il est vrai que le Traité constitutionnel avait confirmé le Traité de Maastricht dans ce domaine, la Convention européenne n'ayant fait aucune proposition sérieuse de changement. Les Etats-membres administrent eux-mêmes leur économie.

Commentaires

1. Le vendredi 9 janvier 2009, 09:49 par JS

Je vous remercie de m’obliger, à juste titre, à être plus clair.
Je pense que le traité de Maastricht a eu raison à 100% de confier à la BCE la mission première de veiller à la stabilité monétaire ; ce qui peut jouer dans les deux sens, comme le remarque Alan Greenspan dans son livre récent : le plus souvent, pour éviter le risque d’inflation due à un excès de crédit de la part des institutions privées ; et plus rarement, pour prévenir la déflation, ce pour quoi on peut la juger aujourd’hui mal armée. Alan Greensppan lui-même exprimait des doutes.
Une chose est certaine, au moins : le pouvoir d’achat de la monnaie dépend en grande partie de la pertinence de l’affectation de notre création monétaire ; et depuis que Keynes, il y a soixante dix ans, remarquait que les choix spontanés de l’épargne avaient peu de chances d’y suffire pleinement, on sait qu’il nous faut trouver un juste équilibre, grâce à un choix judicieux des investissements collectifs de base, qui ont besoin d’un mode de financement adapté à la longueur de leur cycle ; ce que la BCE serait parfaitement en mesure d’apprécier, contrairement à ce que semble avoir pensé le texte d’un traité, qui me paraît avoir pris du retard sur l’analyse des crises qui nous menacent.
J’admets que le terme de carcan imposé à la BCE soit inapproprié ; parlons au moins de main mutilée.
Croyez-vous vraiment qu’il soit vain de se poser la question ?

2. Le vendredi 9 janvier 2009, 09:49 par JS

3. Le samedi 10 janvier 2009, 16:16 par PauLo

Pas le moral... les « golden boys » du CAC40...

qui savent bien qu’ils mentent à leurs clients sur les prouesses des entreprises qu’ils leur conseillent, qui n’ignorent rien du « window dressing » des comptes des grands groupes, de la dégradation professionnelle de leurs équipes résultant du népotisme de leurs dirigeants, qui connaissent la fragilité du système financier dont il vante pourtant la robustesse et la pérennité.

Peu leur importe bien sûr que les petits porteurs soient floués et demain ruinés pourvu qu’ils s’enrichissent eux dans l’immédiat. Certes mais que faire de cette richesse, comment la protéger vraiment et où la préserver du cataclysme, de la faillite ou la banqueroute de l’État français conséquence inéluctable de l’administration calamiteuse socialogaulliste, pour en profiter durablement ? Telle reste la question !

Leurs instruments financiers sont bien sûr sophistiqués mais qu’en adviendra-t-il au moment de la débacle ?

Toutefois ils continuent d’entonner, encore et toujours, mais en y croyant de moins en moins les refrains de la « pensée unique » financière qui soutient le système socialogaulliste :

> « sus à la répartition », une seule solution la capitalisation ; sauf qu’ils savent bien que c’est la « capi » qui a ruiné plusieurs générations d’épargnants ;

> un R.O.I. de 15% de plus que l’inflation, tout en reconnaissant à voix basse que cela appauvrit toujours plus l’entreprise, son savoir faire, la maîtrise, la sûreté, la pérennité de son développement ;

> le court terme, une belle dernière ligne du compte d’exploitation même au prix d’une dégradation réelle, profonde de l’entreprise, d’une casse industrielle et sociale sans précédent historique, de délocalisations toujours plus fragiles et instables dans des environnements plus dangereux et des zones industrielles de non droit.

Ils savent pertinemment que ce faisant les majors entreprises françaises qu’ils promeuvent reposent progressivement sur un « socle d’argile » et ne continuent de prospérer qu’en siphonnant par vases communicants avec la complicité active des socialogaullistes la richesse publique et privée de la nation, la menant à la ruine.

Certains commencent à s’en émouvoir, à le dire publiquement : de plus en plus d’interviews ou de prises de position réalistes parfois même alarmistes sur l’avenir du système financier circulent notamment sur Internet.
Lueur d’espoir ?

4. Le samedi 24 janvier 2009, 10:25 par philosophe

Si l’on admet que la mission première de la Banque centrale est d’assurer la stabilité du pouvoir d’achat de la monnaie, voire sa progression, et que pour atteindre cet objectif, elle dispose du pouvoir de contrôler le volume et le bon usage de la création monétaire, on peut comprendre que l’article 104 du traité de Maastricht lui ait interdit d’accorder a priori des conditions particulières aux besoins de financement publics ; et cela semble particulièrement justifié pour le budget de l’Etat, qui forme une masse globale où s’entassent sans distinction des dépenses de fonctionnement, des investissements de longue durée, - et pourquoi pas - des dépenses somptuaires, si on peut se les permettre.
Le piège vient du fait que la collectivité a – parmi d’autres - la charge de réaliser des investissements de long terme qui sont indispensables à la poursuite d’une prospérité de longue durée. Et qu’elle s’est en outre chargée de soutenir des investissements privés essentiels, tels que le logement ; elle le fait depuis longtemps, et sous diverses formes ; ce qui contribuait sans doute à faire dire à Keynes qu’il était peu probable que l’épargne pourvoie seule à la satisfaction de nos besoins principaux dans de bonnes conditions.
Le problème est là ; et il faut en chercher la réponse, non pas en demandant à la banque centrale d’aider l’Etat, mais en lui demandant d’aider le financement des besoins fondamentaux à très long terme : à ce point de vue, on doit regretter que l’article 104 n’ait pas reconnu le besoin de faire une juste place à la mission d’organismes de financement spécialisés et aisément contrôlables, qui, en matière d’aménagement du territoire et de logement, nous permettent de mieux préparer l’avenir, en prenant des risques bien pesés. Ces organismes existent déjà pour la plupart, et le plus souvent, leurs comptes sont heureusement distincts du budget de l’Etat. Une réécriture plus judicieuse de l’article 104 serait donc à la fois possible et nécessaire en ce sens.
Si nous ne prenons pas une telle voie, nous ne parviendrons probablement jamais à faire mieux que de limiter notre inflation à 2% l’an, comme toutes les banques centrales l’admettent aujourd’hui. Mais n’est-ce pas déjà trop pour bien préparer l’avenir lointain ?

On peut nous faire remarquer que personne ne semble qualifié pour réécrire un tel texte.
Donnons nous donc du temps. Le billet vert n’existait pas quand les Etats-Unis se sont dotés d’une constitution, au dix-huitième siècle ; celle-ci donna certes au Congrès le droit de battre monnaie, et de fixer la valeur des monnaies étrangères, mais sans réglementer de façon plus précise la politique monétaire.
Quand le billet vert fut créé, plus tard seulement par Lincoln, la banque fédérale n’existait pas encore. Ce n’est qu’en 1913 que le Congrès a créé la FED ; et il a eu l’occasion d’apporter à ses premières dispositions plusieurs compléments au cours du dernier siècle ; et il est vraisemblable qu’il en apportera d’autres, demain.
Même si le parlement européen n’a pas toutes les compétences économiques désirables, il serait certainement le mieux placé pour tirer les leçons de notre expérience en la matière.
On a bien fait de séparer Lisbonne de Maastricht. Mais il serait irréaliste de considérer celui-ci comme imperfectible, et de s’interdire tout moyen de l’améliorer.
Le risque de recourir pour cela à un processus démocratique par voie parlementaire est certain ; mais comme aurait dit Churchill, c’est sans doute le moins mauvais.
L’exemple américain, lui-même, n’est pas parfait. Contrairement à ce que nous préconisons, c’est en titres du trésor que la FED investit principalement aujourd’hui ; et on ne trouve plus à son bilan, comme naguère, des titres émis par des agences d’aménagement territorial, telles que la Tennessee Valley Authority, ou d’autres comparables. La FED justifie ce choix par des considérations beaucoup plus financières qu’économiques : l’importance du marché des titres du trésor.
Mais là n’est pas l’essentiel ; et elle devra sans doute se raviser : elle en a les moyens.

5. Le vendredi 6 février 2009, 08:48 par mr taulelle frédéric

mr le président vous avez signé l'autorisation de retour de khomeyni en iran aprés que le shah vous ait répondu que çà lui était égal il fallait ne pas en venir à cette solution mais essayer de restaurer la démocratie personne ne le fit
il faut maintenant le faire en iran avant que ce pays ne se dote de l'arme nucléaire
pour moi déposer rezah avec l'aide des démocrates
n'était pas acceptable

6. Le samedi 7 février 2009, 08:30 par philosophe

Je veux bien que l’on change de sujet, et que l’on quitte Lisbonne pour l’Iran.
C’est, en un sens, plus préoccupant.
Mais, puisque l’on redoute les projets atomiques de l’Iran, je pose une question : L’Iran n’est-il pas préoccupé par le nombre d’ogives nucléaires américaines déposées sur le territoire d’Israêl ? Combien y en a-t-il, sur ce que l’abominable Roger Garaudy appelait « un porte-avions insubmersible » ?
Je n’ai pas la réponse. Peut-être VGE peut-il nous la donner, en la commentant.
N’ayons pas peur du lobby juif américain, qui s’avère chaque jour plus américain que juif.

7. Le samedi 7 février 2009, 09:36 par Jacques Roman

CE QUE DIT LE TRAITÉ DE NON-PROLIFÉRATION !

L'Iran est partie à ce traité, les ÉUA , LA FRANCE, etc, aussi.

En échange de renoncement des États signataires à l'arme nucléaire, le traité prévoit que les puissances nucléaires doivent s'efforcer de parvenir au désarmement général (nucléaire et classique).

Qu'en est-il ?

À ce jour encore les ÉUA envisagent d'installer en Pologne et en Tchéquie des systèmes anti-missiles, ce qui entraînerait pas contre-coup le renforcement de l'armement ballistique de la Russie.

Et a-t-on oublié la "guerre de l'espace", si chère à Ronald Reagan et à p;eine moins à ses successeurs ?

Autre chose : jusqu'à présent, l'Iran a eu la bonté de rester partie au TNP (le traité contre la prolifération nucléaire).

Sait-on bien qu'en vertu des clauses mêmes du traité il pourrait s'en retirer sur préavis de trois mois s'il estime (et lui seul en est juge en vertu des clauses du traité) que ses intérêts essentiels sont menacés?

Les intérêts essentiels de l'Iran ne sont-ils pas mena

8. Le samedi 7 février 2009, 10:02 par Jacques Roman

(suite du message du 7 février 09:36, concernant l'Iran,interrompu pour une cause qui m'échappe)

cés, alors que l'actuel ministre des affaires étrangères des ÉUA a publiquement annoncé lors de sa campagne électorale que ce pays avait les moyens "d'oblitérer l'Iran" et qu'Israël, détentrice de l'arme atomique, parle d'aller bombarder les installations nucléaires iraniennes ?

L'hypocrisie des puissances ci-devant occidentales dans ce domaine constitue une insulte à l'intelligence des citoyens.

Pour le texte du TNP, allez sous :

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/ac...

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